“Tourney Talk” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about the men’s basketball NCAA tournament.
March roars in like a lion
So fierce,
The wind so cold,
It seems to pierce.
The month rolls on
And Spring draws near,
And March goes out
Like a lamb so dear.
-Lorie Hill
March is finally here, and in Southern California, Lorie Hill’s poem couldn’t be more true. In the college basketball world, however, this poem is a bit less accurate. March roars in like a lion, but goes out like the king of the jungle, in the heart of March Madness.
The madness started this week with the beginning of conference championship week. There are 352 schools fighting for glory against their fierce conference rivals, but, more importantly, one of the 32 automatic qualifying bids to the big dance.
Also up for grabs are 36 at-large bids to fill out the 68-team bracket. While ESPN’s Bracketology is a great reference of which teams will be fighting for a national championship, expect to see something completely different come Selection Sunday.
With 32 conferences and hundreds of games to play between now and then, I’ve answered the five biggest questions on how to follow all of the action.
Which teams will punch their ticket this weekend?
Eleven tournaments are already underway, highlighted by the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are once again on a collision course for the championship game. However, neither of those teams will be in action this weekend thanks to a triple bye; they’ll play their first games Monday.
The most intriguing tourney this weekend is the Sun Belt, where the top six teams all finished within three games of each other. Tomorrow starts a three-day stretch of games for these teams with no true favorite, but I did highlight the sharpshooting Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in the Cinderella edition of this column. If the No. 2 seed in the Sun Belt can win out, they figure to be a threat to a top seed in the big dance.
Will mid-major tournaments identify potential Cinderellas?
Yes and no. For the smallest of small schools, making the tournament is the accomplishment. They don’t have the roster power to compete against a No. 1 or 2 seed.
But some of these teams will be seeded in the No. 11 to 13 range, which I like to call “upset central.” The best mid-major teams with something to prove versus Power 6 schools who see the game as a tune-up for the later rounds: a recipe for disaster.
Oral Roberts is the popular Cinderella pick due to their dominance in the Summit League — same with Colgate in the Patriot League. Both are currently slotted in this range in the latest Bracketology.
A team nobody’s talking about is Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels. Pitino’s first season in New York resulted in a tournament appearance as a No. 15 seed, and the Gaels finished the regular season atop the MAAC conference in all three years of his tenure. This year has been their best yet. Should Iona creep into a No. 13 or possibly 12 seed, Pitino’s name alone makes it a popular upset pick.
Not to mention how well the MAAC champion did in last year’s tournament: the Saint Peter’s Peacocks.
Who needs to prove themselves for an at-large bid?
This year’s bubble has been one of the most competitive in recent memory, featuring big names like Duke and Kentucky at certain points this year.
Right now, North Carolina sits atop the bubble headlines. Last year’s runner-up and this year’s preseason No. 1 will enter the ACC tournament as a No. 6 or 7 seed. Virginia Tech won the tourney from this seed last season, but it took a miracle run that requires winning four games in four days.
UNC’s most recent win against Virginia was important for its at-large hopes, meaning the Tar Heels won’t have to go all the way in the ACC to make the tournament. The Pac-12′s “best of the rest,” USC and Arizona State, are in a similar position. Both should have a bye in next week’s tourney and will be favored in the second round matchup. A win there and then a close game against UCLA or Arizona in the semifinals helps their cases tremendously, while a loss in the second round spells disaster.
Which teams have to win their way into the dance?
Virginia Tech’s magic is not uncommon; in fact, it happens just about every year. In this season that’s featured so much parity and losses at the top, a Cinderella conference champion is inevitable.
Villanova is the most likely candidate in this category. The Wildcats are heating up at the right time, winning three of their last four, including two ranked wins. They also sit on the opposite side of the bracket from Big East favorite Marquette, leaving ‘Nova plenty of time to prepare for that game.
There’s also the case of the Colonial Athletic Association. Despite a 20-game win streak earlier this season, the Charleston Cougars are still on the outside looking in. The most recent Bracketology shows no appreciation for the Cougars, meaning they would have to defeat Hofstra — who snapped the impressive streak in January — to secure their tournament dreams.
But if any conference is going to feature a surprise champion, it’s the Big 12. All but one team is currently locked into the Big Dance or on the bubble. West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are the three in a must-win scenario but would have to run through a gauntlet of powerhouses for this to happen.
There’s so many games to follow, what should I watch for?
The bubble watch sets up to be the most exciting, considering most teams are fighting through top conferences to gain at-large bids. For many mid-majors, the only games off ESPN+ will be the championship games, which will feature blockbuster action from tipoff to buzzer. Watching those can be a great first look at some teams that don’t get any attention.
But, of course, the best action will come from the top teams, and the five-team fight for the No. 1 seeds shapes up to be a fun one. Watching these top teams — Houston, Alabama, Kansas, UCLA and Purdue — in their respective conferences should give a read on who the favorite to win it all will be. But keep in mind, it is March, and the Madness has begun.
Tourney Talk runs every Friday.